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BSI PD 7974-7:2003

$215.11

Application of fire safety engineering principles to the design of buildings – Probabilistic risk assessment

Published By Publication Date Number of Pages
BSI 2003 88
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PDF Catalog

PDF Pages PDF Title
1 PUBLISHED DOCUMENT
2 Committees responsible for this Published�Document
3 Contents
7 Introduction
8 Figure 1 BS 7974 and the Published Documents
9 1 Scope
2 Terms and definitions, symbols and abbreviated terms
2.1 Terms and definitions
As Low As Reasonably Practicable
assessment
availability
common mode failure
conditional probability
consequences
deterministic
diversity
10 event
extreme value
failure cause
failure mode
fire hazard
frequency
hazard
individual risk
initiating event
maintenance
mean time between failures
outcome
probability distribution
probabilistic model
11 scenario
redundancy
reliability
revealed fault
risk
risk to life and health
safety
societal risk
stochastic model
tolerable risk
2.2 Symbols and abbreviated terms
14 3 Design approach
3.1 General
15 Figure 2 General approach to probabilistic fire risk assessment
16 3.2 Application of probabilistic risk assessment to fire safety engineering
17 3.3 Identifying and selecting fire scenarios for deterministic analysis
3.4 Setting input data for deterministic analysis
3.5 Analysis of certain aspects of fire safety in building design
3.6 Analysis of the whole of fire safety of a building design
18 4 Acceptance criteria
4.1 General
Table 1 Typical types of acceptance criteria
4.2 Comparative criteria
4.3 Absolute criteria
19 Table 2 Number of deaths per building and the number of deaths per occupant
20 5 Standard probabilistic analysis
5.1 General
5.2 Simple statistical analysis
23 Figure 3 Damage and building size, textile industry
24 Figure 4 Damage and compartment size, textile industry
25 5.3 Logic trees
26 Figure 5 General form of an event tree
Figure 6 Event tree of the early stages of fire event development
28 Figure 7 Simplified event tree for bus garage fires
29 Table 3 Discounted cash flow for bus garage sprinkler system
31 Figure 8 General form of a fault tree
32 Figure 9 Fault tree for the failure to detect a fire within 5 min of ignition
33 5.4 Sensitivity analysis
6 Complex analysis
6.1 General
34 6.2 Other statistical models
36 Figure 10 Probability of area damaged, textile industry
37 Figure 11 Pareto distribution of area damage – retail premises (assembly areas)
38 Figure 12 Fire frequency and large losses
39 Figure 13 The survivor probability distribution of fire loss for each class in the textile�industry
47 Figure 14 Event trees for sprinklered and non-sprinklered fires
48 Figure 15 Event trees for sprinklered and non-sprinklered fires in the production areas�of�the textile indu…
50 6.3 Reliability analysis
52 6.4 Stochastic models
54 Figure 16 Room layout and corresponding schematic
55 Figure 17 Probabilistic network of fire spread of room 1 to C
56 Figure 18 Equivalent fire spread network with 5 min unrated corridor doors
57 Table 4 Fire spread equivalent network assuming 5 min unrated corridor doors
Figure 19 Equivalent fire spread network with self-closing 20 min rated corridor doors
Table 5 Equivalent network assuming self-closing 20 min rated corridor doors
58 6.5 Monte Carlo analysis
60 6.6 Partial safety factors
64 6.7 Beta method
66 Table 6 Probabilities of structural success and failure (normal distribution)
69 7 Data
7.1 Collation of data for PRA
73 7.2 Key issues in the application of PRA data
74 Figure 20 Flowchart for checking data suitability
8 Future developments
8.1 General
8.2 Data
8.3 Analysis
75 Annex A (normative)
Tables
Table A.1 Probability of fire starting
Table A.2 Overall probability of fire starting in various types of occupancy
Table A.3 Probability of fire starting within given floor area for various types of�occupancy
76 Table A.4 Area damage and percentage of fires for each category of fire spread (textile�industry)
Table A.5 Area damage and percentage of fires for each category of fire spread (pubs,�clubs,�restaurants – …
77 Table A.6 Office buildings: frequency distribution of area damage (in terms of number�of�fires)
Table A.7 Retail premises: frequency distribution of area damage (in terms of number�of�fires)
78 Table A.8 Hotels: frequency distribution of damage (in terms of number of fires)
Table A.9 Probable damage in a fire: parameters of equation 2
79 Table A.10 Spinning and doubling industry: places of origin of fires and sources of ignition
Table A.11 Extent of fire spread and average area damaged (Textile industry, U.K.)
80 Table A.12 Average loss per fire at 1966 prices (£’000)
Table A.13 Discovery time and fatal casualties
Table A.14 Frequency distribution of number of deaths
81 Table A.15 Probability of flashover
Table A.16 Building characteristics
82 Table A.17 Reliability data
BSI PD 7974-7:2003
$215.11