ICAO CIR319:2009

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A Unified Framework for Collision Risk Modelling in Support of the Manual on Airspace Planning Methodology for the Determination of Separation Minima

Published By	Publication Date	Number of Pages
ICAO	2009	67

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Description

INTRODUCTION

The collision risk models (CRMs) covered in this circular are
those presented in the Manual on Airspace Planning Methodology
for the Determination of Separation Minima (Doc 9689) and the
Manual on Implementation of a 300 m (1000 ft) Vertical
Separation Minimum Between FL 290 and FL 410 Inclusive (Doc
9574). This circular introduces a unified framework which enables
an analytical derivation of all these collision risk models. The
reason why it is possible to derive them under the same framework
is that these CRMs share similar modelling assumptions.

Chapter 2 introduces the appropriate nomenclature. Chapter 3
reviews the modelling of the uncertainty associated with aircraft
location and examines some extensions to current CRMs. It appears
that, from a controller's viewpoint, the modelling of uncertainties
described in Chapter 3 is inadequate in environments with a high
update rate of aircraft positions. Actually, all CRMs presented in
Docs 9689 and 9574 apply to environments with a low update rate.
Possible methods for modelling uncertainties in environments with a
high update rate are suggested in Chapter3, 3.6.

Chapter 4 introduces a key formula, called the Rice Formula,
which plays a major part in the derivation of CRMs. Derivation of
CRMs using the Rice Formula is presented in Chapters 5 to 7.

Chapter 8 and 9 present a generic CRM which applies to any
operational scenario involving a pair of aircraft, either for
same/opposite directions (Chapter 8) or for crossing routes
(Chapter 9). Since this CRM is particularly interesting for the
risk assessment of predetermined operational hazards, it is
presented in a more general form first, followed by an important
application of this CRM in an ADS-C environment.

Finally, Chapter 10 provides a list of recommended reading and
reference material.

Additional information

Published Code	ICAO
Published By	International Civil Aviation Organization
Publication Date	2009
Pages Count	67
Language	English
File Size	9.8 MB
ISBN	9789292314286

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ICAO CIR319:2009

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