{"id":560921,"date":"2024-11-05T18:29:50","date_gmt":"2024-11-05T18:29:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pdfstandards.shop\/product\/uncategorized\/icao-99612011\/"},"modified":"2024-11-05T18:29:50","modified_gmt":"2024-11-05T18:29:50","slug":"icao-99612011","status":"publish","type":"product","link":"https:\/\/pdfstandards.shop\/product\/publishers\/icao\/icao-99612011\/","title":{"rendered":"ICAO 9961:2011"},"content":{"rendered":"

INTRODUCTION<\/strong><\/p>\n

This report includes medium-term forecasts of air traffic in the
\nTranspacific area, in the Asia\/Pacific region, and for selected
\nTranspacific and Asia\/Pacific city-pair markets through to 2014.
\nThe report also contains a long-term forecast with a horizon to the
\nyear 2030, including a short-term forecast for 2010-2014 and
\nintermediate forecasts for each of the years 2020 and 2030.
\nForecasts are provided for total passenger traffic and aircraft
\nmovements, and in the case of the aggregate Transpacific market,
\nalso for peak hour movements on selected route groups for the year
\n2014. The peak hour analysis is based on a detailed review of
\ntraffic during a typical July week of 2009 and 2010, summarized in
\nAppendix B.<\/p>\n

These forecasts were produced by the APA TFG at its fifteenth
\nmeeting, held in Bangkok from 1 to 8 November 2010. Representatives
\nfrom Canada, Japan, Singapore and Thailand participated at the
\nmeeting (list of participants appears in Appendix A). In addition
\nto inputs from the participants, traffic and financial data for the
\nTranspacific market were received from the US FAA and Hong Kong FIR
\ndata were provided by the Hong Kong SAR CAD. The Group's activities
\nare serviced and coordinated by the ICAO Secretariat at
\nHeadquarters, in close consultation with the ICAO Asia and Pacific
\nRegional Office.<\/p>\n

The economic downturn experienced in 1997\/1998 in the
\nAsia\/Pacific region had major impacts on traffic levels, but the
\nregion regained economic strength. This was evidenced by almost 5
\nper cent growth in total Asia\/Pacific region GDP in 2000.
\nConsequently, traffic in the Transpacific and the
\nIntra-Asia\/Pacific regions in 2000 increased by 6.8 and 5.8 per
\ncent, respectively. Tourism in the region also benefited from the
\nrecovery and experienced high growth rates. It was against this
\nbackground that the tenth meeting of the APA TFG revised the
\nTranspacific and Intra-Asia\/Pacific forecasts in June 2001. In
\naddition, forecasts of aircraft movements to the year 2015, for the
\nIntra-Asia\/Pacific route group, were introduced for the first time.
\nThe Group also considered ways and means of addressing the
\nrequirements identified by the ICAO Asia\/Pacific Air Navigation
\nPlanning and Implementation Regional Group (APANPIRG) and its
\nrelevant sub-groups.<\/p>\n

The events of 11 September 2001 in the United States
\nprecipitated a sudden drop in traffic and thereby invalidated the
\nforecasts which had been developed by the Group in June 2001,
\nparticularly as weaknesses in the global economy began to emerge
\nand as consumer confidence eroded.<\/p>\n

In light of the above developments, the eleventh APA TFG meeting
\nconcentrated primarily on the revision of the Transpacific and
\nIntra-Asia\/Pacific forecasts together with forecasts of aircraft
\nmovements to the year 2015 for the Intra-Asia\/Pacific region.<\/p>\n

The outbreak of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) had
\ndevastating effects on air traffic to, from and within the affected
\nareas in the first half of 2003. Reported monthly figures suggest
\nthat the drop in passenger traffic reached its lowest in May after
\nwhich it started a steady recovery. It is estimated that in 2003,
\npassenger traffic on Transpacific and Intra-Asia\/Pacific routes
\ndropped by some 10 per cent. It was against this background that
\nthe twelfth meeting of the APA TFG focussed on the revision of the
\nmedium- and long-term forecasts for the Transpacific and
\nIntra-Asia\/Pacific markets; the horizon of the long-term forecasts
\nbeing extended to the year 2020.<\/p>\n

The thirteenth meeting of the Group focussed on the update of
\nthe forecasts developed during the previous meeting of the Group,
\ntaking into account the developments which have taken place on both
\nTranspacific and Intra-Asia air transport markets since
\nmid-2004.<\/p>\n

The forecasts for the Transpacific and Intra-Asia\/Pacific
\nmarkets were updated by the Group at its fourteenth meeting, in
\nview of the developments in these markets up to mid-2008, including
\nthe surge in the fuel prices and the slowdown in the economy. Also,
\nthe time horizon of the long-term forecasts was extended up to the
\nyear 2025.<\/p>\n

At its fifteenth meeting, the Group updated air traffic
\nforecasts for these two markets taking into account the impact of
\nthe 2008\/2009 unprecedented economic recession on air traffic
\ndevelopments and extended the forecast time horizon to 2030. The
\nGroup was briefed by the ICAO Secretariat on the preliminary
\nresults of ICAO long-term forecasts developed recently by applying
\na new methodology and it noted that the forecasts will be published
\nin early 2011. These preliminary results were taken into account by
\nthe Group in the development of the forecasts for the Transpacific
\nand Intra- Asia\/Pacific markets.<\/p>\n

Apart from ICAO Member States, the primary users of these area
\nforecasts are expected to be air navigation service providers in
\nthe regions concerned and planning groups, especially APANPIRG.
\nThis information is also likely to be of interest to airports and
\nairlines of the regions concerned to assist in their planning
\nprocesses. The format and content of reports, as well as the
\nforecasts of the APA TFG will be modified progressively to respond
\nto the requirements of primary users, such as APANPIRG, and assist
\nthe progressive implementation of CNS\/ATM systems in the region. In
\nthat context, the Group received brief information about the recent
\nAPANPIFG meeting held in early September 2008 in the premises of
\nthe ICAO Regional Office in Bangkok. The APANPIRG had confirmed
\nthat the forecasts produced by the APA TFG are broadly used in the
\nplanning process of the air navigation facilities and services of
\nthe region.<\/p>\n

At its fifteenth meeting, the APA TFG also initially considered
\ntwo proposals put forward by the Bangkok Office Secretariat that
\nthe Group develop detailed forecasts of aircraft movements by
\nspecific air traffic service (ATS) routes and forecasts of aircraft
\nmovements in the Asia\/Pacific airports, the latter by aircraft
\ntype.<\/p>\n

With respect to the first proposal, the Group believed that it
\nis well positioned to develop forecasts for specific ATS routes,
\nprovided States in the two regions ensure adequate resources and
\ninformation required. However, the task is extensive and at present
\nit would not be possible for the Group to carry it out without an
\naccess to appropriate databases and with the resources being at its
\ndisposal, unless the scope of work of the Group would be revised by
\neliminating certain present tasks. It suggested that the proposal
\nand recommendation that the work be carried out by the APA TFG be
\nsubmitted by the Bangkok Office Secretariat to APANPIRG for
\nconsideration at its next meeting. Should APANPIRG approve the
\nproposal and recommendation, an access to appropriate databases and
\nadditional resources have to be ensured in order for the Group to
\ncarry out the proposed task. The additional resources would be an
\nimportant factor, especially in case the Group is required to
\ncontinue with the full scope of its current assignments. Once the
\nnew task is approved, the Group would work out a methodology to
\ndevelop such forecasts and generate them, initially for a sample of
\nroutes for which data would be available. The number of routes
\nwould be gradually expanded should the required data become
\navailable to the Group.<\/p>\n

Bearing in mind the number of airports in the Asia\/Pacific
\nregion and the complexity of the task, the Group believed that the
\nproposed development of aircraft movements at airports would not be
\nfeasible and that the Bangkok Office could consider collating
\nforecasts already developed for the region's airports, in close
\ncooperation with the States concerned, for the purposes of the work
\nof various APANPIRG subgroups.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Asia\/Pacific Area Traffic Forecasts 2010-2030<\/b><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n
Published By<\/td>\nPublication Date<\/td>\nNumber of Pages<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
ICAO<\/b><\/a><\/td>\n2011<\/td>\n60<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":560927,"template":"","meta":{"rank_math_lock_modified_date":false,"ep_exclude_from_search":false},"product_cat":[2664],"product_tag":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-560921","1":"product","2":"type-product","3":"status-publish","4":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"product_cat-icao","8":"first","9":"instock","10":"sold-individually","11":"shipping-taxable","12":"purchasable","13":"product-type-simple"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/pdfstandards.shop\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/product\/560921","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/pdfstandards.shop\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/product"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/pdfstandards.shop\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/product"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pdfstandards.shop\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/560927"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/pdfstandards.shop\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=560921"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"product_cat","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pdfstandards.shop\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/product_cat?post=560921"},{"taxonomy":"product_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pdfstandards.shop\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/product_tag?post=560921"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}